The outputs are freight models which are better suited to the investigation of new technologies and policy initiatives which affect the nature and costs of freight transport within the supply chain, and which highlight the impacts of policies on sustainability.
paper presented at ETC European Transport Conference 2009.
abstract
From the sustainability standpoint, it is important to be able to forecast future freight volumes, so that the impacts of any environmental policy initiatives can be compared against the do-nothing scenario. Econometric models can not only forecast future demand but can also explain economic or business phenomena and increase our understanding of relationships among variables. This study applies state of the art econometric models to the analysis of road plus rail freight transport demand in Great Britain (GB).
The estimation results show that industrial production generally offers a good explanation of road plus rail freight demand in GB. However, the sensitivity of road plus rail freight demand to the change in the industrial production varies across different commodity groups, as different commodities have different transport requirements and each estimate reflects particular circumstances for each commodity group. The actual magnitudes of income elasticity estimates also vary due to the different models estimated. The ranges of estimated income elasticity for different sectors have been provided. This information will be valuable for transport planners and policy makers.
updated 20 November 2009