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2: Business-as-usual trends
 

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A.C. McKinnon and M.I. Piecyk  (2010): Logistics 2050. Moving Freight by Road in a Very Low Carbon World. Edinburgh
Abstract
This preliminary assessment of the potential for decarbonising the road freight sector suggests that the combination of a series of radical, but probably feasible, changes could cut CO2 emissions by the 80% target adopted by the UK government for the economy as a whole for 2050 (relative to 1990).


A.C. McKinnon and M.I. Piecyk (2009): Measurement of CO2 Emissions from Road Freight Transport: A Review of UK Experience; Energy policy, Volume 37, Issue 10, October 2009, Pages 3733-3742
Abstract
It is possible to estimate CO2 emissions from road freight transport in different ways, depending on the definition of trucking activity, the degree of reliance on survey, vehicle test-cycle and traffic count data and the geographical scope of the calculation. The emergence of differing road freight-related CO2 estimates from official sources and revisions to statistical series can frustrate the policy-making process and erode the confidence of industry stakeholders in the validity of the figures. Using UK data, this paper examines the various methods of carbon auditing road freight transport at the national level and compares the results both for a single year (2006) and over a time period. It highlights a series of statistical anomalies and approximations and tries to explain discrepancies that have arisen in the UK data sets. A concluding section considers the general lessons that can be learned from the recent UK experience in this field.


A.C. McKinnon (2008) The Potential of Economic Incentives to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Goods Transport; Paper prepared for the first International Transport Forum on Transport and Energy: the Challenge of Climate Change, Leipzig, 28-30 May 2008
Abstract
This paper examines the nature and scale of the challenge of reducing CO2 emissions from Goods Transport and identifies a series of economic measures that might be deployed to arrest and ultimately reverse the growth in freight-related CO2 emissions. It begins by reviewing a series of general issues and then outlines an analytical framework within which a broad range of policy options can be systematically assessed. The remainder of the paper examines each of these carbon abatement options in turn.


M. Piecyk and A. McKinnon (2008): A survey of expert opinion on the environmental impact of road freight transport in the UK in 2020
Abstract
Concern has been mounting over the environmental impact of freight transport, particularly over the contribution of CO2 emissions from heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) to global warming. In its Sustainable Distribution document and subsequent policy statements the British government has identified a series of policy measures designed to make logistical operations more sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms. However, in order to assess the net impact of these measures it is necessary to construct a reliable business-as-usual (BAU) scenario which would occur in the absence of new policy initiatives. This paper reports on the preliminary results of a Delphi study undertaken in order to produce an expert forecast of future developments in supply chain structure, modal split, vehicle utilisation and fuel management up to 2020.



updated 1st March 2010


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