Due to recent breaks in statistical data series in key freight transport parameters (Figure 2), forecasting based on expert opinion has been identified as the most suitable approach. It has the major advantage of rooting the forecasts in a detailed understanding of the underlying causes of freight traffic growth and its environmental impact. Focus groups and a Delphi questionnaire survey were chosen as a formal means of capturing and consolidating expert judgement. In order to increase the reliability of the forecast a large panel of experts has been consulted. A structured questionnaire has been used to enable statistical analysis of the responses. The results have been used to construct future scenarios of developments in the road freight transport system. An advantage of using scenarios is that it assesses possible future trajectories for a range of variables and attempts to determine their likely consequences. It can take account of the interrelationship between the variables. A real-world expert outlook on future developments in logistics and supply chain trends and analysis of their underlying causes have helped to maximise the credibility and accuracy of the forecasts produced by this research.
Figure 2. Research design
Updated: 15th May 2009