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2: Business-as-usual trends
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Understanding and Forecasting Business-as-Usual Trends in Road Freight Transport
Time period: January 2007 - July 2009
Project outline:
In it Sustainable Distribution document and subsequent policy statements the UK
government has identified a series of policy measures designed to make
logistical operations sustainable in economic, social and environmental
terms. It is very difficult to forecast the likely impact of these
measures both individually and collectively because of uncertainty about the
future course of business-as-usual (BAU) trends which will occur in the absence
of new policy initiatives. This work module examines several of the key
trends, analyses their underlying causes and forecasts their future course on a BAU basis.
An analytical framework has been developed breaking the relationship between GDP and freight-related externalities down into a series of component parts (Figure 1). The key stages in this 'decomposition', identifying the numerical aggregates, critical ratios and drivers at each stage have been investigated along with their future directions and likely intensity. The analytical framework can also be adapted to include monetary valuations of freight transport-related externalities.Given the current interest in the monetisation of environmental costs, particularly the debate stimulated by the Stern report on the value of a tonne of CO2 saved, it is important that the analysis does not simply end with forecast of the levels of emissions, accidents, congestion, etc. Assigning them monetary values will allow their aggregation into a single measure of environmental impact.
Figure 1. Framework for analysing the environmental impacts of road freight transport
Updated: 15th May 2009
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